The tropical wave we've been tracking continues to improve in organization today. Although it still does not yet appear to have a closed circulation, conditions continue to be fairly favorable for further slow development as it continues toward the Gulf of Mexico. The Hurricane Center has increased its chances to a 40% chance of development during the next 48h; to me this remains a little conservative and I would now put it at 60-70%. The majority of forecast models do not yet develop this system to any extent, but specialized models have now begun to indicate development within a broad range of possible strengths and trajectories. On the image below i've indicated what i think at this point is the most probable outcome.