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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Re: July climate stats and NG/Ceejay

Hi Ceejay,
Sure has been hot !!!!

Please explain this comment further:
"It speaks to the massive production run up that net injections continue in the face of record or near record warmth over 2/3 of the country."

It is not the "heat part" but the "production part".

It appears to me that production is still running at 4++ Bcf/day above consumption even with the high temps. Therefore price has still been declining.

It might appear that production has been increasing over the last several months in the face of declining prices.

We discussed some time ago that producers don't "throttle production" over morning coffee, but as price moved closer to 4 last week, production was still running at 4++ Bcf/day.

I have not been successful on finding much on "production costs" but there has to be a "point" where they "have to cut it back" !!

I understand that there may be some lease restrictions that require a certain level of activity or they lose the lease. There may be other factors "like employee layoff's " and other operational factors that make more business sense to operate at a "marginal price point" for a while ???

Wish I could find more info on the production side.
Price may be able to go to 1.50 and they can still operate ??? Making enough to keep the company afloat and await better markets ????

Chase me where you think I am all wet on what I said !!!

Thanks, Lee