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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Re: October Nat Gas/Hurricane Irene/Trades *PIC*

Hi Trades,

Thanks for the chart/comments !! I actually started this when you posted your last chart the other day when my "power blinked" and I saved it for fear of losing the typing. Later, I quit, thinking I had finished posting it !!! Sorry .... I certainly appreciate your chartscomments !!!

First, I am not "buying into this market" YET. But I am "studying the dickens out of it" !! I'm sure I bore you to death with some of the "fundamental type comments".

Ng is a "huge market" and there is a "lot of money to be made" if one can get a "grip" on it !!!! It is also "changing" and that is where the "real understanding of what is going on" comes in. We are becoming "so dependent" on Ng that it is an "ongoing system" that if one understands "how it works" you can substantially benefit from it. Especially in coming years.

You know full well how the "volitility of the Ng market" can be a "killer" but I am convinced that if you "really understand the industry" you can manage to "stay off the RR tracks !! ".
On Irene comments ...

Yes, market is still flat to down. The hurricane seemed to be supporting price along with the "hot weather, A/C demand" but as soon as Irene turned north the other day and the Gulf was out of "harms way" price started falling off again.

With this storm coming right up the east coast in the image I am posting since CeeJay is away, you can see where all of the rain is likely to hit.

This will cool things off and the expected power burn demand will fall off but production seems to keep chugging along.

So, price may fall off some more after this mornings storage report as the build estimates are still "pretty high", we'll see.

Also the Earthquake has two Nuclear plants shut down in Virginia, (just a safety precaution) but they are expected to be left down until Irene passes since they are already down. This will offset some of the lost A/C demand but it's not clear how much of that lost Nuclear generation will be made up with Ng in Virginia anyway, they had "spare" baseload coal available as well.
- Not sure what effect (if any) the storm may have on Ng production in PA. and NY , but they should only get some wind and rain.

Interesting how Ng price is staying down around 3.9 this morning. Was down a little lower earlier.

Have to do another post on your Ng stocks vs. futures chart and comments. But a quick thought is that if those stocks are doing well they must be making money even at these Ng prices !!!??? Maybe you have some thoughts on that ??

Included image is the hurricane track as of 8am this morning.
Thanks, Lee