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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Re: sold natgas calls /Lee *PIC*

Well unfortunately Nat Gas is a high beta volatile commodity So unlike many nicely trending markets Nat Gas will often whipsaw through the 20ema back and forth without clearing it and holding. This occurs even in trending markets to some degree not just sideways markets. The bottom line is price and price recently hit new contract lows telling you this commodity is a bear. So we need "proof" with price action to confirm at the very least the trend has changed to up in at least the short term. That would require price to re-clear 4.15 AND hold above 4.15 to suggest a rally back of signficance and not just more choppy sideways to down bear market action. This chart would have been far more bullish had the 4.15 price held as support. But it failed to hold and show internal strength like many bottoming patterns do. With new contract lows just seen yesterday there is little bullish about it right now. Seasonals haven't been much help with NG for a long time either due to extreme bearish fundamentals. Price is king and price needs to clear and hold above 4.15 with some volume and conviction to turn things around even briefly. Until then chop,chop is all you can expect to get...................... When the 20ema is falling and below the falling 50ema which is below the falling 200ema that market is a bear. For a significant change to take place you would need to see price 'above' the 20ema and stay there. This would allow the 20ema to cross above the 50ema and reverse this bearish pattern and see the rising 20ema above the rising 50ema which is a solid sign of an uptrend of some signficance.