The appearance and structure of Tropical Disturbance 13 has improved markedly overnight and I suspect it will be upgraded to Tropical Storm Lee this morning. Located around 27N 92W or about 200 miles SW of the mouth of the Mississippi, its pressure is dropping at a faster pace now and local production platforms are reporting wind gusts into the 50+ mi/hr range. Models move it gradually NNE for a late Saturday landfall along the central Louisiana coast, but there is a good chance it will move more slowly than that and i think its 50/50 now that it will be a hurricane before it crosses the coastline and begins its inland march through the SE. It is on track to bring flooding rains to southern LA, Mississippi and Alabama; as much as 20 inches through the weekend.

TS or Hurricane Katia remains relatively weak but intensity models still bring it to a 115 mi/hr category 3 hurricane by next Wednesday where it will still be well south of Bermuda. Models have tended to shift Katia further west, and it is possible the SE US coast will be affected by strong winds next Friday-Saturday but a mainland landfall remains unlikely.