Welcome to the TFC Commodity Trading Forum.
Please feel welcome to join in on these informative ongoing discussions about trading futures and commodities.

The Trading Forum is intended for the open discussion of commodities trading. The management of this Forum does not agree or disagree with the ideas exchanged, and does not exert editorial control over the message posted herein. Read and post at your own risk. The risk of loss in trading or commodities can be substantial. We discourage the use of this Forum to promote trading that is acknowledged to be risky. Please note: many links from the Forum lead to pages on other web sites. We cannot take responsibility for nor endorse the information presented on those sites.

TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Early Morning Day Trade *LINK* *PIC*


Good morning,

We scored nicely first thing Tuesday morning, but overall,
Tuesday was a pretty wicked day to day trade. Lots of
swings, traps, and stalls.

Eyes open for a possible massive Bear run on Wednesday.

Enjoy and be well,


"Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some
good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it.
If it don't go up, don't buy it."
Will Rogers


E-mini ES Z1
Tuesday September 13, 2011

1 = Tuesday morning opens at the Close, dips long enough for a trend, and tapes a huge 2-bar
"P" Reversal at the Close. Volume is very supportive.

A = We are pulled in as a large white candle crosses the High and exits the green fog. Initial
stop under the High. BTW, this candle completes a 2-candle 123 of the Close, inviting entry
with multiple contracts.

B = Huge white candle puts our position in Pivot Magic Trading Maximum Profit Giveback (MPG)
violation. Mental stop at Giveback Level.

NOTE: Once again ABS is bloated. So that we don't get taken out
preemptively at every Price Action twitch, stop, exit, and MPG
placements may be expanded.

C = Large white candle. Normal stop placed under the low of the candle leaves the position
in MPG violation. Mental stop at Giveback Level.

D = Late-in-the-Move DVS (pink arrow) suggests this surge represents the end of the move.
Possible Twin Towers (blue arrow), indicating a stall/reverse, confirms. As the large white
candle penetrates the R1 and retracts, Pivot Scalp Exit. +/- 7.75 points

2 = Strong 2-bar off the R1.

E = We enter on a large red candle. Initial stop above the high of the candle.

NOTE: The suddenly diminished Volume associated with this candle
(= E) retroactively makes the signal (= 2) DVS-based. We don't
trust DVS-based 2-candle signals for longevity. The assumption
behind our entry is violated. Prepare for end of move.

F = Black Volume Bar of Death (pink arrow) Doji. Move the profit-locking stop above the high of
the candle. Since we are already expecting the end of the move, AND since our rules say to exit
on white following a Black Volume Bar of Death Doji, make that a mental stop for greater exit

Exit/SCRATCH as soon as the next candle shows white.

Turns out to be nothing more than a nasty S-trap, and the plunge continues almost to the Close,
without us.

3 = Too close to lunchtime to enter away from the Close on a signal that requires counting the
reversing candle to get a trend.

4 = Large Double Bottom through the Close (orange oval). Lunchtime Volume keeps us on the

Price Action sideways lunchtime drifts, and finally wafts up to test the R1. Trading
Interest/Volume is still "out to lunch".

5 = Very nice full-sized Head and Shoulders (orange oval) at the R1.

G = By the time Volume comes to life (pink arrow) and Price Action clearly breaks out, the
PMT entry clock has run out.

The plunge dips almost to the Close, and, as the BBs offload positions, Price Action bounces
back to retest and close EOD at the R1.

(Daily, bottom chart)
Tuesday's Price Action breathed deeply with
a mid-sized white Bull Dragonfly day candle.
Price Action is still stalled dead center of the
LT SW Channel (lavender lines).

Since the Bulls don't seem able to rally,
Wednesday may very well test the LT SW
Channel Floor.


REMEMBER: Trade the Tape, Not my Prognostics!

=] ;-)>

Tuesday's PMT Chart: