Here is the stats on NG. Open Interest is highest in November. I wouldn't even look at Oct Nat Gas futures anymore as you suggested price does fall off near the end especially when bearish or even with normal contango. Everyone is exiting that contract. Not so when in backwardation and bullish though as price gets squeezed then. Not the case with NG. Watch Nov and then Jan. Forget Dec as it is an oddball month for NG. So here is Nov Nat Gas testing its recent lows of 3.90 with fairly positive lower technicals. But it is still a bear and acting like a bear. As long as the falling 20ema is below the falling 50ema which is below the falling 200ema all price tends to do is rally up to the 20ema and roll over again. NG is volatile so can run threw it to the 50ema but same thing it rolls over again with price having lower lows and lower highs. This 'pattern' has to change to get bullish and expect anything more than day or swing trades to take. 1st thing that has to occur is for 3.90 to hold AND price to clear and hold above that downtrendline. Until then it will just do what bears do. Critical test here with this 3.90 low. No more room for downside with the long term two year uptrendline pushing its luck right here. Seasonals are bullish from here too so no more excuses for NG. It's gotta show its stuff with this line in the sand or it is in far more trouble than before.
Natural Gas Futures
Delivery Symbol Expiry Date Last Chg % Chg Open High Low Settle Open Int Vol
Oct 2011 /NGV1:NMX Sep 28, 2011 3.822 -0.056 -1.44% 3.83 3.895 3.791 3.878 (115780) 119.65 k
Nov 2011 /NGX1:NMX Oct 27, 2011 3.932 -0.049 -1.23% 3.992 3.994 3.917 3.981 (213620) 78.05 k
Dec 2011 /NGZ1:NMX Nov 28, 2011 4.168 -0.027 -0.64% 4.204 4.205 4.151 4.195 83396 29.37 k
Jan 2012 /NGF2:NMX Dec 28, 2011 4.307 -0.016 -0.37% 4.339 4.339 4.287 4.323 (165316) 23.14 k