A general lack of extremes in temperature will mark the 10th-17th of this month. With the exception of the NE and Texas, where conditions will be warmer than average, the bulk of the lower 48 should have slightly above average to slightly below average temperatures. The Pac NW looks to be wetter than usual and the east generally dry, as massive surface high pressure centered over New England dominates the map bringing very nice fall weather to the NE, much of the SE (not Florida, though) and the Ohio Valley (lots of sun, cool nights, mild afternoons). This incidentally is a pattern that encourages the development of tropical systems in the Carribean. Although the Hurricane season is trailing off, historically about 20% of systems develop between now and the end of the season, so there remains some potential. The areas at risk in this pattern include FL, the Bahamas, Cuba and to a lesser extent the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

This week will bring generally wet and cool conditions to the west coast and Rocky mountain states; warmer than usual conditions to Texas and the Plains, and cool conditions to the East as a large trough and ridge pattern slowly traverses to the east. Texas looks to get some significant rain toward the end of the week as high pressure moves to the NE and the flow shifts south, off the still moist and warm gulf of Mexico. Hurricane Ophilea will just brush by Newfoundland tonight or early Monday and Tropical Storm Philippe will likely turn NE later in the week, posing no risk to the US mainland.