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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Tropical update - Gulf of Mexico/FL windstorm? *PIC*

As I've previously mentioned, the establishment of a strong high pressure center over the eastern US this time of year can promote the development of a tropical system in the western Caribbean. No model yet has indicated the development of an explicit tropical system in the Caribean through the next 10 days or so, but all indicate that the conditions for formation are becoming increasingly positive. These include the development of a broad trough of low pressure in the western Caribbean. Now given that this trough is likely to develop, and a strong high will be in place over the Northeast, the pressure gradient between the two will, even without the development of a tropical storm, create a very large area of high winds beween the two, primarily along the east coast of Florida and over the open waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The attached Canadian+US ensemble forecast illustrated the strong sustained easterly winds (50 km/h+) expected by next saturday night in the region. Ensemble models are conservative, and I would not be surprised to see sustained tropical force winds over much of the western 1/2 of the Gulf by this time. What does this means for NG and Oil production? I'm not sure but I do think there is a risk posed by this to rotary wing transport and so crews and staffing may be affected on Rigs west of a line drawn south from New Orleans.