Hi Stargazer,
Sorry for the delay, my power was out since 3.30. Given a Friday late afternoon I suspect most of the repair crews were worried about loading their cars to go off for the weekend rather than fixing the downed power lines !!!

This is the article I was referring to:

It had nothing to do with you, or your "one line post" that "It all depends on the weather.".

This was posted shortly after the jump up in Ng by Reuters, and my comment to Trades was referring to the fact that the news writers "often open the file drawer and pull something out" to justify/comment on a move in a given market - And I think those kind of "unsupported news stories" are most likely "crap" !!!
Like the Reuters story that "cold weather was coming".

Note the "short covering comment" as well, plus it is Friday AND there is a G20 meeting this weekend, AND it is quite clear that "winter is coming and it will be getting colder as time goes forward".

There is not enough "COLD" the next few weeks to justify that kind of a jump.

I do allow that the forward contracts Z and F jumped up as well, but I would no more trade that based on your prior comment that "It all depends on the weather.".

I also observe that X (about to expire) bounced off 3.45 ish 4 of the last 5 trading days prior to today's jump up.

But Z and F did not fare quite so well by comparison.

Again, my comment was not directed toward you, but to "last minute news articles" attempting to "sound intelligent" over a sudden market move. I seriously doubt that writer had a significant "clue". Had it been published yesterday, or first thing this morning to "look for a bounce in Ng" with the "cold weather forcasts in the offing" I might find it a bit more credible.

I would find the apparent production shifts from dry gas to NGL's and the Day Energy thing much more significant at the moment. So, We'll see what Monday brings. If the "onset of cold weather is going to 'rule' " there is plenty of time to identify the change in the market trend, without without getting caught by a "one or two day bounce" !!!!
Lee

The Reuters link and article:

link
https://research.tdwaterhouse.ca/research/public/Markets/CommoditiesNews?documentKey=1314-N1E79D0VG-1

NYMEX-Natural gas jumps 5 pct on cool weather forecast 4 minutes ago by Thomson
Reuters NEW YORK, Oct 14 (Reuters) - Front-month U.S. natural gas futures jumped
more than 5 percent on Friday, boosted by short covering ahead of cooler weather
expected for parts of the nation starting next week.

Front-month November natural gas futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange
rose as high as $3.735 per million British thermal units just after
midday, up about 20 cents, or more than 5 percent, to their highest mark in two
weeks.

Early Thursday the front month sank to $3.446, a contract low and the lowest
mark for a front month since late October 2010. (Reporting by Eileen Moustakis)