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TFC Commodity Trading Forum


Last week I gave the outlook for the Non-Farm Payroll data “The consensus for Friday’s NFP is for 90,000 job growth, with an unchanged unemployment rate of 9.1%.” That data is a matter of record now so let’s have a look.

1. US Payrolls +80,000
2. Official Unemployment Rate 9.0%
3. Unofficial Unemployment Rate (U-6) is 16.2%
4. Participation Rate steady at 64.2%
5. Household Survey rose by 277,000
6. Unemployment fell by 95,000
7. Average Weekly Workweek was unchanged 34.3 hours
8. Average Private Hourly Earnings rose 5 Cents to $23.19
9. Government employment decreased by 24,000
10. Major revisions come in bullish

When released last Friday, most of the enthusiastic talk centered on the revisions made to the two prior reports.
Bloomberg said the following The headline number for October payrolls was a little disappointing but upward revisions were more than offsetting. Payroll jobs in October posted a gain of 80,000 after rising a revised 158,000 in September (originally 103,000) and increased a revised 104,000 in August (previously 57,000). Market expectations were for a 90,000 boost for the latest month. Revisions for August and September were up net 102,000.

As in recent months, greater strength was seen in private nonfarm payrolls which advanced 104,000, following a 191,000 rise in September and a 72,000 increase in August. The October increase was lower than the market median forecast for a 120,000 increase.

The revisions are encouraging and hopefully this will soon lead to strong HEADLINE numbers.
Trade well and follow the trend, not the so-called “experts.”

Larry Levin
President & Founder- Trading Advantage