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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Weather December 5-12

A more "normal" pattern is in store with much of the lower 48 expecting near average conditions temperature-wise Dec 5-12. The Northern Plains, Great Lake states and New England will be milder than average; temperature will be somewhat cooler than average over the SE, southern Louisiana and southern Texas.

This week will be active weather-wise. Deep cold high pressure over most of the SW and inner-mountain west will pump very cold air south into the SE, producing a "cold cut-off low" that will bring the chance of wet snow to Arkansas, northern Louisiana, inland Alabama and northern Georgia as it slowly circles through these states early in the week. It will then head toward the NE and bring mainly rain to the Ohio Valley and eastern Seaboard before exiting thru Quebec wednesday afternoon. In the wake of this system, weather in the east will quiet-down but remain generally cool.

In the west a Pacifc front will weaken as it moves into the Pac NW, leaving strong high pressure in control for the first half of week. Much of the west will experience quite mild conditions verging on hot and windy over southern California as this is an ideal santa-ana pattern. By Wednesday, though, some Pacific energy will dive into the Pac NW then south into UT/NV bringing cold breezy conditions and a good chance of mountain snow. Thursday-Friday this low will head toward So-Cal bringing their little heat wave to an end. Also at the end of the week some quite cold Canadian air will push into the Northern plains but the pattern doesnt look right to move it very far south.

I expect this week to see, finally, a net withdrawl from stocks of NG but it should be small relative to seasonal averages.