Here's something to consider, Gian. You have drawn a down trendchannel. Let's say we draw a trendline connecting AUG SEP lows, a confirmed downtrend, and run a parallel off the AUG high; we have a 'presumptive' trend channel. Under these circumstances the trader would look to sell at the high end of the channel, as occurred in OCT. Worked perfectly in this case, the so-called Wyckoff Reverse Trend Channel. The expectation is return to the lower boundary of the channel; failure to do so is a sign of strength.

The use of stats, Bollinger Bands, should serve you quite well. I would only suggest you incorporate several higher timeframes and watch for allignment of the various variables; it will reduce your trading frequency and thereby reduce drawdown. CO