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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Re: Gold Stock ETF: Channel Top Resistance/Trades

Yup, I agree, the miners have been laggards for a very long time indeed...that pattern has to reverse (break through that downward channel) before this sector can really start to hum again.

On a fundamental basis, looking at a whole host of valuation metrics, the universe of Gold stocks has rarely been cheaper than they are now. Despite the current $200 plus per ounce correction in bullion, miners continue to make incredibly healthy margins, and would still be very profitable if bullion dropped another $200. Of course that would bludgeon sentiment into the ground (6 feet under perhaps, lol), and likely be a finishing blow for the bugs. But at that point, the valuations would be unbelievably compelling. It seems to me though that once bullion 'proves' itself to the masses by holding a solid floor somewhere ($1500-1600 range?), stocks should finally start to catch up with the fact that miners are fetching way more than $1000 per ounce for their product and thus have their p/e multiples pushed up accordingly. The one thing about stocks is that they invariably revert to the mean when it comes to valuation. Of course the tricky part is that the timetable for it is always a big unknown...so I guess we'll just have to watch and see how the market reveals itself...never a dull moment that's for sure :)