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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Re: Weather men Reports, Not A Good Way To Trade/G

I disagree. One of the main keys that took me from failure to success, is abandoning all fundamental influences, and trading strictly on the technical signals.

The problem with fundemental analysis (at least in my experience), is it is very difficult to have a grasp on the complete picture. You are always missing information, and are never really sure if expectations are, or are not factored into the market yet or if you have been able to gather all the pertinent news.

Just a month or so ago, everyone was taking abut being bullish NG. Coral and I were the only ones saying "not yet". He even made some bearish calls that came to pass. I was dabbling with the idea of selling calls. Everyone poo pooed the idea and touted fundamental this, and fundamental that. But look where we are now. Low and behold, NG dropped significantly.

How is it I was able to be bearish (even made some sweet day trades to the short side), and be right when everyone else was bullish? It's because ALL fundamental data IS reflected in the technicals of the chart. The commercial interests see to that in how they trade.

You are right, I don't trade NG specifically. However, that is not saying much because I don' trade any market specifically. I trade 5 or 6 specific technical set ups. When I look for opportunities, I scan entire market sectors, using weekly charts for one of my set ups. I don't care what market it is, or even what instrument. It could just as easily be futures, options, stocks, or used car prices. It all works the same way. All that matters is that I have the margin to place the trade.