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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Re: Trades...et al....corn? and ... *PIC*

Hey jhn, how goes life. Must seem very cold leaving Thailand. Here is the March Corn contract with what I see on it. 568 was major support and tested it successfully. Price has lost a lot of momentum since the Aug high retracing just over 50% of its June/10 to Aug/11 rally. Some would argue of a bearish Head and Shoulder pattern but I wouldn't see it that way myself. Only a breakdown of 568 would have confirmed that pattern. Price is up against 1st resistance at 644. If price can clear this and hold above it will be trapped between that new support level and 672 resistance tight channel. This is also the 200ema and needs to be cleared. The Modified MACD stayed above the 0 line typically as it does in uptrends and fell below it in late Sept with the sharp selloff and remains below. This needs to cross back above to suggest the uptrend is for real. The faster RSI 21 is above the 50 line again. Note the Oct/Nov rally which was higher the RSI 21 50 line only served as resistance. Clearing it on this recent lower rally is a good sign. The CCI 20 is very overbought so price could typically stay in this next tight channel and consolidate for awhile or even back off from here and see this indicator pull back. The RSI 21 would likely just pull back to its 50 line and the Modified MACD being so long term would keep rising towards its 0 line and remain positively crossed as it presently is. Also notice at a glance the rising 20ema and rising 50ema are like train tracks going uphill. That alone is a good guide in uptrends. This trend is still in a downtrend but both are curling back up again and need to cross to be bullish again. This should continue even with price consolidation or a mild pullback. The chart looks good to me so far since mid Dec but I wouldn't chase it here until I see a pullback or consolidation for awhile. At the same time you definately don't want to see price selloff to 568 again. That price point has been tested enough already and wouldn't likely servive another test. If price can hold above the 20ema this will be bullish and see all the moving averages become positive once again. Important test here right now to see how strong this bounce really is. Seaonal trends on Corn tend to be bullish within the 1st 1/2 of the year. That's all I see here jhn. As always this is just food for thought and what I see here, and good luck with the trade.........................