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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Re: Feb Gold/ GDX Hammer/Haligonian *LINK*

Well good luck with the trade. I saw this morning the typical rally in the 1st 20 minutes as the wild eyed Gold Bugs always do this. Price hit 51.80 1st resistance and when it rallied to 52 and rolled over again around 10am E. I couldn't help myself and bailed out with a few hundred bucks just for holding overnight. And sure enough price came all the way back to yesterday's breakout pt at 51.09. I considered getting long again but the price action with Gold so strong really spooked me as it is not bullish to see the Gold ETF:GDX selloff with strong Gold. What really concerns me is Feb Gold breaking major support of 1577 and testing the Sept low and then bouncing back only to the breakdown pt around 1577. See price stall out there and back off. Price is sitting in no man's land between the Sept low support and 1577 resistance. Price could plunge quickly to next support at $1480 even with the present technicals at typical buy points. Being early can put you under water with them at least briefly and make a hole to dig out of instead of catching a low. So with most technicals in the 'buy zone' price on GDX needs to re-clear that 52 breakdown point and hold. And Gold needs to re-clear 1577 resistance to give the all clear it's rally time again confirmation from what I see. Also look at the Gold/Silver ETF:CEF. A clear breakdown and bounce back to the breakdown point at 19.80 as well. Gotta see more "Price Proof" on the upside for my liking. Here is a chart of the GDX with GLD overlaid. These are Elder Impulse bars that are colored. It is based on the 13ema along with the Histogram. After a selloff you want to see the bars turn from red to blue to Green. Also don't see a Green bar as yet either. Everything else I look for is in place. But after everything I do I always fall back on the old tried and true price action and support and resistance pts I learned long before computers were used. And price is the only thing left to confirm a rally. Also studies have shown that rallies in Gold tend to run 27 to 32 trading days when they are trending. So I'm flat until price ok's the technicals. Damn I wish I wasn't so fussy,lol. As far as the new year goes all the best to you and yours in all you do as well. Never met an East Coaster I didn't like.

In case the url doesn't work you can copy and paste this address in your browser.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p45157371919&a=238223076