BS"D
Good morning,
Much Ado About Nothing! Responding to a no-content FOMC announcement,
Wednesday's Price Action exited the new LT SW Channel (Daily, bottom
chart, green channel lines) and gave us one (2) decent trade.
LESSON:
Never underestimate the hysteria of even a no-content FOMC announcement.
Enjoy and be well,
DAILY PIVOT MAGIC TRADING JOURNAL - EXCERPT
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Pivot Magic Trading
First rule:
"Any time you don't know what
is happening, get out!"
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E-mini ES H2
Wednesday January 25, 2012
Wednesday opens gap-down at the Pivot and dives to test the S1 Support.
1 = It's 10:30 Reversal time and Price Action bounces off the S1. Pointing this out because
the Pivot closes the Price Window north of the S1 from all future trades.
Similarly, the Price Window from the Pivot is foreshortened by the proven S1 Support. Thus,
we sit until after the upcoming FOMC announcement.
A = Announcement notes are out. Volume (pink arrow) and Price Action get hysterical (over
absolutely no new news, which accounts for the Twin Towers indicating stall immediately
following!)
2 = Volume is strong (pink arrow), supporting aggressive entry as this 123 exits both the LT
SW Channel and the green fog Ambush Zone. Initial stop advances under the Close.
B = Large white candle slams into the R1. Position is in Maximum Profit Giveback (MPG)
violation. Volume is still strong, so place a mental stop at Giveback Level.
Some exit as Price Action stalls with a Doji. +/- 2.25 points
Other, more experienced, Readers of the Tape note the drop in Volume behind the Doji, rely on
out mental stop, and wait.
C = Either this is an aggressive re-entry on a DVS-driven (pink arrow) 123 for those who
bailed out, or a chance to add contracts and to move the stop tighter for those who held on.
D = S-stall gives way to a large white candle slamming to a halt at the R2 Resistance. The
position is now in MPG violation. Mental stop at Giveback Level. However, this time we note
the Late-in-the-Move DVS (pink arrow), implying exhaustion, and stand ready to exit if Price
Action Stalls.
It does. We do. +/- 5.25 points
3 = DVS-driven (pink arrow) 2-bar through the R2. Even though we distrust DVS-driven 2-candle
Signals for longevity, this might entice some to enter aggressively, exiting 5 candles later,
as the R1 is spiked and retracted. This entry was NOT per our rules, but you may have lucked
out, THIS TIME. Don't be fooled by dumb luck.
4 = A 2-bar followed by a kickoff (blue arrow) would be fun to trade, but the R2 is thoroughly
proven. There remains no open and tradable Price Window for this trade.
5 = A 2-bar at the R2. The PMT entry clock has just about wound down, and the Volume does not
confirm the signal.
E = Volume really comes to life (pink arrow), but, alas, our entry clock ran out 10 minutes ago.
Shut down.
EOD Hiccup (plum lines) is on time, with the classic "V" check mark pattern. Nothing
spectacular, but Price Action does return below the R3 by EOD close.
PERSPECTIVE
(Daily, bottom chart)
Helped by the irrational boost from the FOMC, Wednesday
taped a healthy white candle, which exited the new LT
Sideways Channel Ceiling (green channel lines).
We may see yet another day of upward drift, but it is most
likely that Price Action will soon return to the safety of
the Channel.
BE PREPARED FOR ANYTHING, AND GUARD YOUR FUNDS!
REMEMBER: Trade the Tape, Not my Prognostics!
Asher
=] ;-)>
Wednesday's PMT Chart: