After Feb 3-4, Winter returns in earnest to most of the east while generally mild conditions are expected in the west. The planetary circulation is shifting (the Artic Oscillation is near -3 this morning which is near its historically most negative level in more than 50 years of record) which means that a strong pattern of ridging in the west and a cold trough settling over the east will bring cold NW flow out of northern Canada into the US east of the Rockies for most of the first half of February. Some of the big winter snowstorms can be expected to develop along the east coast from the second week of February on.

This week will see a deep but fast low scoot thru Ontario into Quebec today and Sunday bringing snow and quite strong winds to NY State, PA and New England today and Sunday but in general the majority of the week will be quiet with relatively mild conditions in the west (except wet over the Pac NW) and moderating temperatures in the east. Mainly just New England will see a bit of snow from time to time Monday-Friday although by Thursday a Colorado snowstorm may develop as some Pacific energy encounters a cold push coming down the Rockies. A strong frontal boundary will develop over the deep SE toward the end of the week, increasing the risk of severe weather there from southern LA to northern FL Thursday-Saturday. This weeks relatively mild weather should keep NG withdrawl numbers a bit below seasonable averages, but the following 2 weeks should see withdrawls on the high side.