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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Providio’s Daily Futures Market Commentary for F *LINK*

Currencies:­­­­ 15Feb The action for the last week or so has shifted the previously positive anti-Dollar trade the other direction. Unless an atypical move is due, the FX markets should stay in the current positive Dollar/negative other bias for several weeks. Volumes seem to be holding up strongly adding further validation to the price action’s implications

Today’s US economic releases were a mixed bag and indications point to somewhat anemic US growth going forward. Obviously there is financial turmoil in Europe with the Greek debt situation and other PIIGS going forward.

Aussie: 15Feb After a quick test of higher action failed in early AM trading, the negatively biased technicals continue to offer evidence of downward pressure. The flattening 200-day moving average lies well below at 1.0352, but served as solid resistance throughout the end of last year.

Seasonal Snapshot: An upward bias lasts until March.

British: 15Feb More negative action as the negative technical bias gained steam. Closing in on Oversold. Since peaking at the falling 200-day Moving Average on Feb 8, it has offered a classic falling trend profile; lower highs and lower lows. After the sustained 19-session rally, the sell off is likely to become a material affair. Currently testing support at the 38.2% retracement of the move higher; at 15654. If this fails, the next “major” support is near the 50% retracement at 15571 and also the 15550 round number.

Seasonal Snapshot: Choppy consolidation in all three patterns with a modest upward bias into Mar.

Canadian 15Feb The Loonie’s rally is in doubt as well as its Momentum and Trend indicator have both turned to a negative bias. With its RSI near 50, if this is indeed o a move lower, it has plenty of room to run down. Very Low Volatility leaves this market rather comfortable with the proceedings.

Today’s action both tested (and failed ) at the 21-day trend indicator (now falling) and the rising 200-day Moving Average (it held). The day’s candlestick shows as a doji, with a negative bias. The falling Trend has started picking up strength in the last 2 days.

If the still falling 200-day Moving Average doesn’t offer enough support to the Loonie, look for lower action chart structure. Testing the par level is a key area. If it fails to hold it should settle in as a material resistance area.

Seasonal Snapshot: The 15 and 30-year patterns are modestly negative until Feb. 16. The 5-year is positive until Feb 16.