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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Re: April Nat Gas/ Tighter & Tighter Range/Randolf

Yes the theory is about the 3/4 point in the Symmetrical Triangle that is the breakout/Breakdown point. Going right to the end of the apex tends to see a random sideways and erratic price pattern so one should avoid those types that go the entire distance as they are not what they appear to be. But the bottom line in such a tight pattern is the recent Jan low and price resistance above to suggest direction of some magnitude. Also Symmetrical Triangles are what's called "continuation patterns" meaning the breakout tends to be in the direction price has been traveling before forming it,which is down. Odds favor a breakdown not a breakout. NG is a bear and has been for a long long time. So we need "PROOF" by breaking down or breaking out over resistance to suggest the medium term direction regardless. But it's price action is very typical of a price trying to form a base to build on. And the 'perceived' fundamentals are extremely bearish with everyone predicting a one handle on price any day now. That is also typical of an end of a selloff. That was the talk about Copper in early 2009 when price had already bottomed in late 2008. Everyone then "just knew" Copper would be a couple of bucks or less any day now. Didn't happen. If the options weren't so expensive an Option Strangle would be a good trade I would think. Haven't checked lately but they tend to be expensive for a market that has been just eroding for some time. Those option sellers do cover their ass well mind you. Can't really blame them for that.

Also speaking of 13 don't know if you've read anything by Tom DeMark but he uses a 9 and 13 pattern in his work a lot. He counts "consecutive" days where the close is greater than the close 4 days ago. He looks for 9 of these "in a row" and suggests price reverses "to some degree" after that. And if the 9th day it succeeds in this, the close must be above the 6th day as well or expect one more day in the present direction before the reversal. Don't know how he uses the 13 thingy. I have a book about his system by Jason Perl called DeMark Indicators. Apparently DeMark himself is bad at explaining his system and Jason Perl has a good following regarding his work. Haven't got into this book as yet as I haven't been in the right frame of mind for it with other things to deal with but plan on reading it and making notes. With Stockcharts.com there is a Scan Engine you can build your own Scans with and I can make a Scan of most any indicator such as this or any combination of indicators like that of all sorts to instantly Scan most any stock market which also includes Commodity ETFs as well as Indexes of all the Sectors. Interesting stuff. A subscription to Stockcharts is only about $25 per month which is cheap. Lots of stuff there with saved charts,Scans,educational stuff,pre-scanned selection and emailed updates on the market from well known technical analysts such as John Murphy and Arthur Hill.