Mild and wet east of the plains, near normal and fairly dry west except cool and wet in the Pac NW with a good build up of the late-season snowpack in the Cascades and northern Rockies. This winter may have been and continues to be explained to a certain extent by variability in the PNA (Pacific North-American) index. A negative PNA generally means cool in the west and mild in the east. PNA is well linked to ENSO (the El-Nino, la Nina cycle) and this winter has been fairly consistent with that, especially since the PNA became negative early in Feb. Forecasts are for ENSO neutral conditions by April. ENSO neutral generally means shifting to warm in the west and near-to-above average temps in the east.

This week will be governed by a series of systems developing over the northern tier of states. A weak low over the great lakes will move offshore by Tuesday while another develops over the southern Rockies tomorrow and a third moves into the Pac NW on Tuesday. The rockies low will move toward the southern Great lakes and track offshore Thursday night while the Pac NW storm will amplify into a long axis of low pressure over the central states by Tursday then consolidate into a strong system over southern Ontario by Saturday. The first part of the week will be fairly cool over the NE but warm up with the approach of the Rockies low in the second half of the week. The Pac NW (including Vancouver, Mr. Trades) may see significant wet snow tuesday, even down to sea level which is uncommon for the time of year. TX, especially the SW, will warm up significantly this week. Nrn FL looks wet early this week as a subtropical disturbance forms over the gulf and crosses offshore on the Atlantic side. The SE otherwise may see heavy rains and some severe weather late Friday and Saturday as the cold front from the Rockies low approaches then crosses the region.