Gold: 28Feb Watch today’s break out above last Thursday’s high of 1789.5. If it can’t sustain the move, it may be entering a consolidation phase. Resistance should be offered at the psychological 1800 level, which aligns with the November high at 1804.
We continue to track the rising 21-day moving average (1745), as the market has found support at this average since breaking out above in early January. Below the 21-day moving average, we continue to eye 1705 as a significant support level. It’s near the recent lows, is a price the market broke out above, and was a minor support level back in November.
Seasonal Snapshot: The 30yr pattern points down all the way until the end of March. The shorter-term 5yr pattern points modestly lower until 10Mar while the 15yr consolidates before turning down on 28Feb.
Copper: 28Feb The most active contract continues to be supported by the falling 200-day moving average it has been trading around for the last few weeks. Our Rate of Change indicator has turned higher and has our Momentum remains on the cusp of going positive. That said, our ‘middling’ Overbot/Oversold indicator (51) have this market looking for direction.
A failure to forge new recent highs above 399.50 would be negative and may target the recent lows at 370.25. Volume continues to trend lower since the spike on its break out to the upside on 09Feb.
Seasonal Snapshot: A month-long rally in all three patterns lasts until 05Mar.