China's commodity demand declining: Credit Suisse (by Chris Oliver)

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- The commodity super-cycle underpinned by China has drawn to a close, according to new research by Credit Suisse, which says the Chinese commodity needs have peaked as the nation transitions to domestic consumption and away from exports and infrastructure building as a driver of the economy. Credit Suisse analyst Dong Tao said the shift is part of China's changing industrialization model and a slower-growth era ahead, with annual gross domestic product gains likely to be in the neighborhood of 7% to 8% during the coming decade, cooling from 10.7% annual growth over the previous decade. "In our view, the golden age of infrastructure investment is behind us now, the golden age of the housing boom is behind us, the golden age of export is behind us, and the golden age of policy stimulus is behind us," Tao said in the note released Monday. He said China's subsidized housing targets, which include plans for the creation of 36 million public-housing units in the Five-Year Plan ending in 2015, is among the few areas where demand for commodities is likely to remain strong. Still, Credit Suisse said the deceleration is inevitable, forecasting that China's demand for steel per percentage point of GDP growth will fall to less than 40 million tons by 2020, easing from 71 million tons seen in 2011.