Currencies: 08Mar With the Greek debt-swap situation apparently going swimmingly, risk-on is back in vogue, especially in anti-USD trades, Gold, and Equities. News reports that the ECB is staying put with its key interest rate added tot his dynamic.
Then the rise in US Jobless Claims took a bit of the wind out of the sails of the USD/Euro interest rate differential trade.
March options expire tomorrow, Friday.
Aussie: 08Mar With the better news flows today easing the fears of the capital markets, risk-on bets jumped back in the train today. In the absence of any more significant new stories between this afternoon and tomorrow’s NFP report, look for action to stay on the risk-on column until then.
Technicals have turned from clearly negative to a modest positive bias and the shift in that direction seems likely to continue. It bounced out of the Oversold zone today; another indication of a shift to higher bias.
However, the 30-minute chart has what amounts to a double top (bearish pattern) at just shy of 1.0660.
Seasonal Snapshot: Divergence between the 15yr pattern (negative) and the modestly positive 5&30yr patterns ends with modestly negative tone for the first part of March.
British:08Mar Like other USD denominated currency markets, the Sterling has bounced after testing lower levels; in this case several times at 1.57. Its rally, however, has stalled out at 1.5830. Waiting for the NFP report tomorrow morning is the likely scenario until tomorrow AM.
Technicls are a mixed bag with Trend rising and Momentum still negative. Any overnight moves likely to run into resistance at about 1.5850-1.5880.
Seasonal Snapshot: Decidedly negative bias in all three patterns lasts until 10Mar.