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Re: Equities/Testing the Breakout Point/Insider

Thanks for the posts. Interesting take on it all. I try not to read a ton of reports etc but am always going to be exposed to a postive or negative view by what I can't help come across. That includes markets that I don't trade or care about. But with this constant exposure I often find there is a strong bullish or bearish 'theme' that is repeated continuously by all the reports and opinions I come across. If there is a strong bullish or bearish theme that I can't avoid week after week I've found it pays not to take that trade as everyone is on one side of the boat. Something has to change in the other direction to at least balance the overall theme to make the trade work. I don't know of any organization that isn't projecting a significant selloff into summer/fall. And being exposed to this continually I can't help but believe this myself. Especially with so many technicals suggesting this. Everything is overbought and most internal indicators have topped out where they historically have seen price highs and have rolled over along with the oscillators and other technicals doing the same. Not a reason in the world not to short this equity market. But the chart on SPX is stil technically bullish with just a pullback to the double top breakout point. As charts go there is nothing bearish about that chart.......YET. What this suggests to me is there will either be no correction from here under 1370 SPX "OR" it will break down but only have a mild 3% to 5% correction that by then will have everyone including little old ladies shorting the crap out of this market with everything including triple bear ETFs. I've seen this often on the odd stock site I've read. The novices all start buying these double and triple bear ETFs convinced the market is going to crash. And the more cautious ones get on board these short trades right at the bottom of the move finally convinced their peers were right. People have a fear of 'missing out' and once they see they've missed the move they can't help jump on board what seems to be 'obvious'. And like Joe Granville used to say "If it's obvious, it's obviously wrong." A very helpful concept to keep in mind. And each and every time the market rallies and trashes their short trade. So I'll just trade the short term moves when I get a chance and get back in cash as quickly as possible.I don't have faith in anything anymore. I just don't think we are all playing with a full deck anymore so have little to no confidence in the trends. Too many variables now that reverse positions in a heart beat and trash a trade. Won't get rich doing this but will get to keep what I already have regardless. And preserving capital is Job#1 for me.

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Re: Equities/Testing the Breakout Point/Insider