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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Corn Spread/Still Working Well *PIC*

The Buy Dec Corn/Sell Sept Corn spread that I posted here the other day seems to be rising steadily. Moore Research sent me it and showed it had worked 15 of the last 15 years. I marked the chart with their entry date and exit date. As I mentioned before I don't know what if any drawdowns would have occurred during this time frame in previous years. Regardless of accuracy drawdowns (if you accept them) can be a real mind bender during a holding period. And if you are wrong and the trade doesn't work holding with a large drawdown will trash your trading account with such a complacent attitude while going deeply into the red on a trade. So if it works you are a hero and if it fails a bum. You pays your money and takes your chances. In my last post I mentioned this trade started a couple of weeks ago. I have often seen these trades documented by major research firms start two weeks early very often with all the commodities and end very early as well. I always suspected most of their clients are commodity funds that simply play the odds and use this type of research to place their trades. They get in early and exit even earlier for a high odds trade. But then again who knows for sure. But this trade also took off two weeks early and already looks over extended like many others that start early like this. Technically it looks like a pullback is due even if it is going to zig zag higher into its exit date.