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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Re: Nat Gas/ Finally has a One Handle/Silverbear

Hi Silverbear,
The interest in Ng began way back when it was (3 to 4) when Hal and Ronbo were looking for it to go up. I started tracking it and concluded I knew very little about the market's behavior and the wild price swings especially on report day.

So, I started studying the market and think I have a much better understanding of why it behaves the way it does ....... Wish I had the confidence I have now back in August !!!!!

One day soon, I plan to go back and try to figure out what the "piggy bank" would have had to "withstand" to have gone short on 7/20/2011 and just stayed there. Had one done that your "piggy bank would be 'hugging and kissing' you " about now !!!!

By eye, it looks like if one had gotten beyond about 8/15/2011 short and just left a stop at entry (wiling to give it all back) one could have safely ridden this thing all the way down !!!! Live and Learn !!! Plenty of opportunity along the way to have moved the stop down and still left it extremely wide to stay in the trade.

NOW, my interest is to "stay with it" and see how the Industry deals with this as we go forward. Announcement of substantial production cuts could turn Price on a dime !!! BUTTT, most of the dry gas is coming from "Associated gas" from Crude and Liquids so as I commented in the response to Trades' chart - maybe they will wind up "giving it away" just to get rid of it and get their hands on the crude and liquids ???? They cannot legally flare it. Also, thinking that Price can/will go to zero seems to me to be a bit "unrealistic" !!!
On the Yen:
Yes, you caught my interest !!!!
But JYM12 is a "bit pricy" for my blood !!!
In looking into it, I found an Emicro contract on Ox [M6JM12] that is dirt cheap !!
I think it is the inverse of JY and if so, one should be able to just "short it" ???

These are the only contracts that Ox offers on the Yen.
With IM at $178.76 per contract for M6JM12 you aren't sticking your neck out very far so clearly have to look into it, at least for fun !!!

All I can say at the moment is that 1/JY price produces the price for the M6JM !!!!

Keep me posted on your Yen thoughts ....
Good Luck,
Thanks Lee