Metals:
Gold: 11Apr With the positive reaction to the increasingly dire global economic news, Gold seems to have found a near-term bottom. However, before we start popping corks, there are several items that should be noted.
First, there has not been the required breakout that would indicate an actual change in Trend. If we apply our Technicals to a weekly time frame, the view is decidedly more pessimistic. The Gold market has been exhibiting a classic falling trend with lower lows and lower highs. This is true for a short-term view going back to late February and a longer view going back to September 2011’s peak.
Second, recent moves to higher Trend and Momentum figures, our primary directional indicators, have been relatively short-lived in duration. Granted, the Trend will already be in place before our indicators, which lag, will “show” as such, but that’s a reality of our indicators.
Third, the global economic situation has been remarkable in its reaction to manipulations from “authorities”. This is all geared towards keeping the “system” working. That’s generally a “solution” geared towards adding risk. That will tend to work against Gold.
For this morning, if Gold can’t break out above the 1465 resistance, look for a likely test of last week’ lows. Again, while Trend, Momentum, ROC and RSI are all headed higher, recent experience tells us it probably won’t last long.
Support below should be seen at 1647, again at 1630-1632, and then again below at the lows of 1613. The 1635 resistance also sits right at the declining 21-day Moving Average.
Today’s action, as of this writing, is setting up as a Doji with lower Volume. This speaks of consolidation. We will likely see a more concerted directional after the release of today’s Beige Book report at 2 PM EDT, if not until tomorrow’s Jobless Claims release.
Seasonal Snapshot: All three patterns consolidate with an upward bias until 23April.

Copper: 11Apr With most indicators on the global economic scene pointing to lower activity, Copper is in a serious decline of over 8% (we miscalculated and mistakenly stated over 9% yesterday) in the last 5 sessions. Today’s fall has May’s lows in the support area at about 3.6350. It again is pushing the –2 STD from the 21-day Moving Average. Below that, we see likely support at 3.5350. We see initial resistance all the way back up at 3.70-3.75
Trend, Momentum, ROC and RSI are all firmly falling. RSI is Oversold and getting more so. This, after being as high as 61 on 4/3.
Volatility is near average.
Seasonal Snapshot: A month-long rally in all three patterns gave way on 05Mar to a consolidation phase with a modest upward bias until mid April.