Currencies: 26Apr Quiet news flow (so far) and a somewhat quiet economic calendar opened .
See below for specifics.
The Yen will experience a large dose of economic data and the BOJ announcement.
As we have mentioned in past comments, the “authorities” will make forays into the traded markets to prevent collapse, using more than actual monetary policy execution, but also the power of the press to change market conditions. This effect is maximized as the US Fed is now in a situation where another round of QE is being publicly debated.
This is another example of our common theme of the push-pull of the European and American debt/economic situations trading places on the front burner.
Risk-off trading will still tend to favor the USD and Japanese Yen.
Aussie: 26Apr The currency is sustaining yesterday afternoon’s break out (and settlement) above our declining trend line drawn from the 2/29 peak (1.0280). This targets the 38.2% retracement (1.0405) of the decline since the end of Feb. There are also plenty of additional rest stops at 50% retracement (1.0435) and the preceding series of highs: 27Mar 1.0461; 19Mar 1.0529; 08Mar 1.0552; 05Mar 1.0611.
We see 1.0180 a significant support level and 1.0150 below that.
Watch the declining 21-day moving average (1.0270) for support. We also continue to eye the relatively flat 200-day Moving Average. The Aussie has periodically struggled at that level for almost a month. Stay attuned to directional indications for global trade, especially out of Asia, as that is what Australia’s economy depends on as a commodity exporter.
Seasonal Snapshot: The 5-year pattern trends generally higher until April 30th but with more day-to-day choppiness. The 15-year pattern is in a rising trend until May 4th. The 30–Year pattern is consolidating before heading higher on 01May.
British: 26Apr The second consecutive month of GDP contraction signals “recession” for the U.K, but opens the door for more stimulus and seems to be supporting the currency, as of this writing: