Hi Silverbear,
I don't think that would surprise me.
I have been following the posts where you put the USD question.

I just looked at your rig count article, and believe it. Check the rig count thread if want more on that but you can make your self crazy !!!

I only follow the fundamentals to try to gain a better understanding of just how this market works. There is an awful lot going on !!!

The most flexibility in consumption is the power gen. utilities. Above 2.50 things can start to change. There are huge coal piles sitting with now idled coal plants just waiting to come back on line if Ng price goes up. The Ng power plants are "wired" right into the pipelines, so they can switch at the drop of a hat. It's just a matter of scheduling transport.
Also, most Ng plants are going full bore right now carrying base load, so there's nothing left when we get into summer and need the peakers. Some of the idled coal plants will be coming back on line any way, reducing Ng consumption. These utilities have been pigging down all the Ng they could burn (spot market) while the price was cheap so it never showed up in the storage scheme and really makes it hard to really see Supply/Demand.

Remember, we are very close to not having a place to put any excess production !!! Any errors in judgement could result in price coming way down this summer. I think average temps. this summer are already viewed to be a problem.

So if Ng does get to $3 I would think it has to be "speculation" and price could plummet.

Do you follow, understand the forward contract prices. Often called the forward curve ??

Thanks, Lee