Currencies: ­­­­ 17May See the Yen for analysis on today’s spike to the upside.
That said, we still maintain that Greece’s ongoing political turmoil has many commentators we’re hearing expecting Greece to leave the Euro. This uncertainty continues to drive capital into an extremely Overbought US Dollar. The “risk off” pressure to most of the major currencies is becoming a chronic dynamic of new lows and extreme Oversold conditions.
Watch for an announcement or “event” that reverses this dynamic (if only for a while) into a profit-taking US Dollar decline.
A worrisome observation we’re seeing again is one where the risks are seen as “well contained”, a constant comment for the last several years. As risks bubbles up, it is commented on as “manageable” or “nothing to worry about”, and then at some later point, it is seen as out of control in some way.
Corn: 17May Today’s action has all the hallmarks of a consolidation at a decision point/level. All our measures have shifted higher and quickly so. As stated yesterday, if this latest rally peters out it may return to a negatively biased profile quickly. Corn may be at that point as both July and Dec have rallied right up to their respective declining trend lines. Additionally, the shifts to positive bias occurred too rapidly to be sustainable without a major shift in sentiment.
July’s trend line, drawn starting from 3/19, runs right through today’s high at 626 ½, falling a bit over a.01 per day.
December ‘s trend line, also drawn starting from 3/19, runs through 5.31, falling about .01 per day.
If those trend lines hold, the downside is likely to be new lows.
In old-crop July, price action has run up to 6.20. The low 630s is the next notable resistance area. Look for support down near 6.05.
New-crop December Corn rallied to just shy of the 5.30 resistance, which is also right about where the declining trend line passed through. First support is near 5.15, then down to the 5.00 psychological level.

Both contracts remain within declining channels that have defined several months of trading activity.
We retain some skepticism regarding this latest rally, as our comment below is still valid.
As the crop’s planting is likely to be completed soon and the crop progress itself moves along, there is a real possibility of an enormous crop. Coupled with declining fuel demand and the Corn may be setting up for a washout.
Seasonal Snapshot: For July- 5-year heads modestly lower until higher until May 15. It will be in a modest rising pattern until May 21, then head generally sideways until June 7.
The 15 and 30-years head generally sideways until, May 10, enter a quick 3 days higher than enter a period of long broad decline until early July with some interim pops higher.
For December- 5-year heads sideways until May 15, then trends higher until peaking on June 13. 15 and 30-year are in a generally negatively biased sideways period until May 29th.