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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

weather May 28-June 4

The end of the month into the first week of June will bring some moderation in the Eastern "Heat Dome" as cooler air filters into the Great lakes area, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine. Otherwise, above to well above normal temperatures will continue east of the Rockies. In the West, near normal temperatures are expected except over southern California which should continue to be warmer than average.

This week features, to start, an early but weak tropical storm off the SE coast. It should not intensify to Hurricane strength and will lift out over the open ocean later in the week. Well above average temperature will persist most of the week over the West except over the NW at first and down the Pacific coast north of Monterey later where a strong Pacific storm will move inland during the first part of the week. Cool air will spread south down the Pacific coast during the week This Pacific trough will initiate the development of strong surface low pressure over the northern plains, generating a hot and dry southerly wind over all the plains beginning Tuesday. Hot and dry flow will creep East during the week, where muggy unstable and thunder-showery conditions early in the week will give way to drier, but warmer -verging on hot- conditions all the way to the East coast by the end of the week.

Some models develop a new tropical storm in the Caribbean early this week, but if it happens it is likely to move NNE toward the open Atlantic and away from the E coast.

Overall, temperatures didn't depart much from averages (warmer but not much, generally) at major markets during the NG period to be reported on next Thursday by EIA. So, understanding the utilities have increased their NG proportion over coal, we should see another week of modestly below the 5 year average injection.