Next week will bring above average temperatures SE of a line drawn from Duluth to Los Angeles; well above average over E Texas and the Gulf Coast States. Below average NW of the line with well-below average over the Pac NW and Montana.
This week features Subtropical Storm Beryl moving inland over N Fl tomorrow and weakening, and a progressive ridge in the east generating above to well above average temperatures over much of the region for the next few days. Beryl is relatively weak wind-wise but will bring welcome rain to S. Carolina, Georgia and Florida where drought has been in place for several months. The ridge, which will move east and gradually flatten over the next 2-3 days will produce average temperatures over much of the east in the 10-20F above normal range although NYC and coastal New England will be cooler and close to normal for the period.
As the eastern ridge moves offshore by mid week, a zonal (W-E) flow will set up at first followed by the development of a sharp trough over the central US as some Pacific energy digs into the central Plains. This will set up a severe weather episode over the central and northern plains Wed eve that will move East and grow S, extending the risk of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes to LA, MS and Georgia, running N into Illinois and the Ohio Valley Friday eve.The east coast will warm up as the flow turns southerly and a ridge builds over the coast in response to the trough.
Meanwhile in the West, a strong ridge will build over the region after mid-week, with well above normal temperatures reasserting themselves over the Rocky mountain states and much of the West by the weekend, although it will be a temporary warm-up as a strong Pacific system moves inland over the coastal NW next Saturday.
Although NG prices fell Friday as this weekends eastern heat-wave appeared to be transient, the general pattern appears to be more-or-less continuous above-average temperatures over the East through the remainder of the spring. Indeed it does look like a long, hot summer.