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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

July Nat Gas/ Continues to Break Supports *PIC*

July NG broke below 2.65 and now below 2.48 which were previous breakout pts. Price approached the major downtrendline and rolled over. Price is once again below the 20ema and if it stays there will roll that moving average back down again and below the 50ema for a bearish trend once again. The RSI 21 has also fallen back below the 50 line. Bottom line: This 1st pullback from its recent rally off a major low is the acid test that will determine bull or bear status in Nat Gas. Price needs to hold above the last major low or at least double bottom and turn back up again to suggest a base building stage #1 market. A break below the April low will just confirm a continuation of the bear market with just another bear market bounce on the chart. Big test here on NG. Also note the long July/Short Jan/03 spread trade is holding up better than the front months which is a positive factor showing less negative contango. The Modified MACD turned bearish when falling below the 0 line last July and has remained below regardless of these bounces. It is presently bumping up against that 0 line and 'appears' to be rolling back down again.