Hi Silverbear, Trades
Your comment:
"Also expensive.
Are we going to see $ 1.50 - 1.00 natty??? "
I was going to post a comment before the report came out but didn't make it ....
I was leaning to the down side and glad I stood aside !!!!!
The preliminary expectations on build/withdraw usually gets priced in to the market before the report comes out. [See list below.]
This week it was very tight around a build of 74 and I was going to comment that a couple of Bcf above or below should result in a bearish/bullish move. It is unusual that all of the estimates are so tightly grouped.
EIA report was +67 a pretty healthy variance from expectations !!!!
So, what ever is/was going on, Ng price is still going up 2 hours after the report came out.
That initial jump up was worth about $378 on one little Emini contract !!! Right now at 2.43 the gain would be about $540 so far.
I clearly did not want to jump into the fray. I fully expected the players to re-think that large of a miss by the EIA and see price come right back down .... Well it didn't !!!! At least not yet.
I have no clue whats up, unless some major producers (plural) have shut off the spigot and only the big boys know about it yet. Also, I wonder how much of this rise been a "triggering of short covering" . Seems like every little notch the price moves up contracts are available ??? Maybe you, Trades or Hal can comment on this.
Seems to have "topped out short term" for a moment here at 2.46. I'll have to go back to Trades charts to look for significance around 2.46.
Thanks, Lee
This is the long list of "Preliminary estimates" for today's report.
Canaccord Genuity + 80
CH Guernsey + 74
Citigroup + 80
Credit Suisse + 74
Ecova + 68
Energy Mgmt Institute + 70
enerjay LLC + 72
EOXLive + 75
FirstEnergy + 75
First Enercast + 73
Gelber & Associates + 67
IAF Advisors + 74
ICAP Energy + 75
INTL Hencorp + 72
JPMorgan + 75
Macquarie + 74
Prestige Economics + 85
Raymond James + 71
RideFar Energy + 76
SMC Forecasting + 74
Stephen Smith Energy + 74
Strategic Energy + 75
Summit Energy + 70
Thomson Reuters Analytics + 73
Tradition Energy + 76
