Well, this is the weekend of the big Greek vote.. anyone trading it? (ps: G.. nice dx chart.. might be the way to play in adance..never traded it..i hear it is thin?? )
It seems that the ND party should win.. pro euro…however, without enough to rule without making deals/coalition with others… so maybe no resolution… it could drag on and on. Meanwhile the politicians, esp Merkel, continue to make noise.. bide time.. and the problems spread. Seems unlikely any magic healing will occur. I’ve never seen anyone suggest it, but I kinda think Germany ‘likes’ the PIGS problems… without the PIGS, the euro would be way way stronger than it is or has been and that would undermine Germany’s exports..??? I haven’t seen anyone talk about my other thought…that if the weak countries exit the euro, won’t the euro soar? Amazing amount of money has left Greece.. where did it go? Usa? Swiss? Gold? How did it impact wherever it went and will it unwind? ie, dollar ‘not’ continue up and away? I have more questions than answers or opinions and I do note that difference.
Stocks are surprisingly strong in the face of this weekend, even with option expiration.. I was looking for one more wave down to 1270 1280 september snp… sold at 1327 yesterday and stopped out overnight
So far today, bonds are strong despite stocks holding.. probably defensive positioning for the weekend… gold up also… Yen up this week… euro holding surprisingly..
I am flat for the weekend… was looking for ways to play it… puts and calls????
Yen could spike Sunday… july yen calls 129 or 130???
Snp puts and calls are not cheap… don’t like any of them…
Bonds could spike.. only 7 days left on the july options.. 135 Note call 250$??? 153 Bond 375$??Only a few days left on july bonds and notes and August not cheap..
I like the yen calls best..
But I don’t see anything wonderful, so rather than anticipate, I will try to react to any reaction instead…
IF IF we get a spike in bonds/notes etc, I will try to sell oom options on the spike.. be nicer to have a long call before a spike to sell against but I have a hard time buying a july with only a few days left even though the ‘event’ is within those few days.
If the euro spikes UP on some interpretation of the event.. I will again sell oom sept calls.
Or maybe it is all a non event, just headlines.. we shall see..i think flat is nice.. enjoy the weekend.
Other trade ideas??? Comments? Suggestions? Cheers, j.