For the end of June through independence Day models are trying again to develop an Omega block pattern over the US...troughs of low pressure over the NW and the NE and a big ridge in between. The NAEFS temperature anomaly forecast reflects this with a below average to near average temperature forecast over the Pacific NW, near average over the NE, and warm elsewhere, especially over the deep south and southern plains. This pattern is supportive of tropical storm development in the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, and that bears watching.

This week features, again, a cool NW as a trough digs across the NW coast and into the northern Rockies early in the week, followed by another trough next weekend. Strong winds with the first trough will bring an elevated risk of wildfires to the Northern CA Sierras and into the Great basin early this week. As the western trough digs, high pressure in the east will build, increasing temperatures over the Ohio Valley at first and into the NE megalopolis (Boston to DC) starting Tuesday with temperature increasing onto the 90's and heat indices approaching 100F. A weak cold front will bring some relief late Friday. Florida and the Gulf coast will start off very warm and fairly dry but tropical moisture will surge N later in the week and so by Thursday/Friday I expect some significant rain in the region and will be looking for the development of tropical systems.