Day trading Price Action, Thursday, traveled a slow, stair
stepping trend, traversing a mighty range of +/-34 points.
The stall-retest stair stepping cut short some of our trades,
but we did take one long lunchtime ride.
Enjoy and be well,
DAILY PIVOT MAGIC TRADING JOURNAL - EXCERPT
Pivot Magic Trading
"Any time you don't know what
is happening, get out!"
E-mini ES U2
Thursday 21 June 2012
Opening at the Close, Price Action plunges suddenly to the Pivot, and even manages
to dribble through Pivot Support. Opening Range Volume is not very excited today.
1 = At 10:00 Reversal Time, Bears execute a 123 of Support-turned-Resistance for a
failed Pivot retest.
A = Volume suddenly explodes (pink arrow, DVS). We are pulled in, somewhat dazed
by the DVS, on a monster red candle, almost a perfect Marubozu. When the candle
closes and the dust clears, we find ourselves pleasantly in Maximum Profit Giveback
(MPG) violation. Mental stop to Giveback Level.
B = Bull DVS (pink arrow) does little to reverse direction, but enough to
temporarily stall the assault on S1.
Somewhere in the oval are a whole slew of reasons to not only be convinced that
in time the S1 will get hit, but also that hanging out will require deep pockets.
We need to give the stall room to "work out". That requires enlarging the At
Risk. The resulting R:R is a drop worse than 1:1. Exit Now! +/- 2.75 points
The drift does go on, and the swing does enlarge.
NOTE: Even the small candles today are 2 pointers.
With engorged ABS, in order to avoid getting stopped
out at every Price Action adjustment, expand stop,
exit, and MPG placements.
2 = A "P" Signal off the MA qualifies as a PMT "S" Signal. (BTW, the S1 is still
"officially" unproven".) Volume (pink arrow) is strong.
C = We are pulled in below the MA on a powerful large red candle, slamming
nose-through the S1. In light of the preceding stair step trending nature of the
day, let's leave room, but play safe. Calling that candle "through the S1", move
the profit-locking stop above the S1.
D = A 2-candle 123 (opportunity to add contracts) and a large red candle crosses
the Low. Per our stop rules, move the profit-locking stop above the Low.
Price Action stalls. Another stair step? Will it retest the S1?
E = Massive Bull DVS (pink arrow) only manages to exact a very small interruption
in Bear Momentum.
The stall is getting a bit long. Both the MA Resistance and the current Trend
Channel Floor (green channel lines) held. Assumedly, the Fed exhausted the Bull
optimists' hope, and traders are seeking to re enter the safety of the LT SW Trend
(Daily, bottom chart, blue channel lines).
F = Around noon Volume perks up, and the Bears finally generate a large red candle.
Let's be extra grateful and call it a "failed test of MA", permitting us to tighten
the profit-locking stop a drip tighter, above the MA.
Price action continues, vaguely bearish, taking baby steps, skulking along under MA.
G = Finally, DVS (pink arrow) plunges a large red candle almost to the S2-Trend
Channel Floor junction. This could be the end of the move. Luckily, the position
is now in MPG violation, warranting a mental stop, a mental stop, that is, perched
at Giveback Level, but prepared to exit briskly if the S2 holds.
H = Late-in-the-Move DVS Twin Towers (pink arrow). Readers of the Tape, can it get
any clearer? Not only do we NOT add contracts as this giant red candle 2-candle
123s through the S2, aggressively testing the Trend Floor, completely exhausting
Momentum in a vain stretch and wave, well out of range, at the blue line (LT SW
Channel Ceiling) below, but also we Exit Now!, before the green line exerts, and
Price Action retests the S2-MA junction. +/-13.50 points
Back inside the current Trend Channel, the stair stepping resumes.
3 = Now we're on the inside of the Channel. The blue channel line is considered a
Primary PL. A 123 off the (directionally-selective) semi-permeable PL.
J = Volume is alive (pink arrow), which is all we require for a Bear entry. Pulled
in on large red candle. Advance stop above the MidW.
K = Not sure this candle is large enough to elicit a stop adjustment, but we feel
comforted to move our stop to Free Trade and a tik.
L = Late-in-the-Move DVS (pink arrow). Much like = H, above, this signals the end
of the downtrending portion of the stair stepping trend. If not now, exit as the
next candle shows white, exit. +/-3.25 points
4 = Remember, inside the LT SW Channel (blue channel lines), the S3 gets demoted to
Secondary PL. Even so, it's hard to ignore the Resistance at the S3-MA junction!
The PMT entry clock has run out, but I sure wish I could honestly spot anything in
The trend gently continues stair stepping to EOD close.
(Daily, bottom chart)
Friday tapes a gigantic red day candle. Depressed by
the Fed's altruistic [sic] announcement, traders, on
and off the floor, full on stampeded back to the safety
of the LT SW Trend Channel (blue channel lines). By
the end of the day, the plunge was limping along,
traveling on fumes, so anticipate a Bear breather
(should say, panter/gasper) day tomorrow.
REMEMBER: Trade the Tape, Not my Prognostics!
BE PREPARED FOR ANYTHING, AND GUARD YOUR FUNDS!
Thursday's PMT Chart: