Sorry about the delay. The first half of July looks above average to well above average temperature-wise from the Rockies to the east coast; especially warm over the Ohio Valley and Midwest. Average elsewhere except...you guessed it...cool in the PAC NW. There is a deep pool of abnormally cool ocean water of the west coast from Alaska to California and out west to the dateline. It looks like a pretty consistent feature for the summer.

This week features Tropical Storm Debbie in the Gulf of Mexico. Models have found it difficult to agree on track and speed but most models keep it relatively week. Ensembles have slowly arrived at the conclusion that it will track NE across northern Fl later this week and out to sea but until yesterday they were moving it slowly west . I think the Jury is still out, and a western track is just as likely. This will happen if Debbie consolidates around its center of circulation, Right now its very lopsided with most of its thunderstorms to the E and NE of the center or over Florida. Flooding is ongoing and continues to be a significant risk over FL for the next day or 2.

Otherwise a large hot ridge centered over OK will expand toward the east this week. The NE will start off cool, but a slowly moving upper low will lift out of the area Thursday and spread hot weather to the coast by Thursday. The Mid West and OH valley will heat up through the week with little in the way of organized precipitation. Of course, this is a highly uncertain forecast for the all the gulf coast states plus N ans S Carolina due to Debbie.