SUGAR:
First Notice: July: 02July; Oct: 01Oct
Options Last Trade: Aug: 16July; Sep: 15Aug; Oct: 17SepSeasonal Snapshot: All three patterns are in a pronounced upward bias until the beginning of Aug.
27June: Notes:Continuing concern over tight supplies is an upside risk.
Precipitation is another issue, as heavy rains slow harvesting activities in Brazil and also threatens India. Potential rain damage to crops in Brazil is still being assessed but has emerged as a supportive dynamic.
With Sugar increasingly seen as an industrial resource (ethanol), it is vulnerable in the global economic landscape.
Support: 20.50: Old resistance and where the market fell to and bounced for a short time in early May.
20.15-20.20: 21-day moving average and 6/11-6/15 inflection level, 6/22-6/25 support.
19.80:Late May support, early June inflection, mid-June support levels and rising trend line that extends back to the 04June low.
18.86: 04June low
17.00: Target for the break below a large descending triangle and horizontal trend line (21.00) that dates back to January.
Resistance: 2100: psychological level and near last weeks highs.
21.95: 50% retracement of the March to early June decline.
Comment: Despite our recent pronouncements of weakening technicals, the move today was clearly positive. A material move higher coupled with a material rise in Volume. Trend and Momentum both now pointed higher. Rate of Change and RSI have both bounced.
If the Brazilian situation proves to be less damaging than accounted for in recent positive action, look for a sustained materially lower move. If the situation IS, as expected, quite damaging, look for some moves to the upside, though, capped by low 21.00 levels, at least initially.
Seasonal Snapshot: All three patterns are in a pronounced upward bias until the beginning of Aug.

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