All the ensembles are showing a shift during the second week in July from the current pattern: from troughs over the NW and the NE with a ridge in the center of the country to one where the ridge shifts west and intensifies, with some deepening of the trough in the NE. In spite of the NE trough, the ridge becomes so strong that the relatively cooler air remains trapped in Canada and so even Eastern temperatures are forecast to remain above average through the middle of the Month. As the ridge shifts west and builds, some monsoonal moisture will be brought into the ridge flow south of the ridge, and so precipitation chances will increase significantly for AZ, New Mexico and Colorado and somewhat for the central and northern plains. The Pacific NW will warm up to near normal (finally), the West will be much warmer than average and most of the East will be above average although New England should remain near normal, temperature-wise.

This week brings heat-wave conditions over much of the country, especially the Southeast. To start the NW will be cool and the NE will be just outside heatwave criteria, but thru the week the NE will warm up and then the NW as the ridge back-builds across the west. Showers and thundershowers will persist in SW TX and strong to severe thunderstorms can be expected any day along the northern circulation of the ridge, along a line arcing from Colorado, Nebraska, south Dakota, southern Minnesota and Iowa, Michigan, Illinois, Indianan and Ohio, Southern NY state and Pennsylvania, and the Delmarva.