First Notice: July: 25June; Oct: 24Sep; Dec: 26Nov
Options Last Trade: Sep: 17Aug; Oct: 14Sep; Nov: 19Oct; Dec: 09Nov
03July Cotton joined the U.S. Grains in rallying off the sweltering heat and indications of possible damage to the crop.
Dec Support: 70.15: 21-day moving average 69.50: 21-day moving average
67.75-67.95 Shoulder for an inverse Head & Shoulders
64.60: 04June low
Dec Resistance: 73.75: +2STD above 21-day moving average
74.50:Was support in early May, inflection point in late May and just above mid-June settlement high.
74.80: 19&20June double top and old support in early May
Seasonal Snapshot: The 30yr pattern consolidates throughout June, but the 5&15yr move the entire month.
First Notice: July: 02July; Oct: 01Oct
Options Last Trade: Aug: 16July; Sep: 15Aug; Oct: 17Sep
03July: We are hearing of a rare move in the Sugar market that is being touted as quite bullish. Cargill and a top producer in Brazil are reportedly taking large deliveries in the July contract, an exceptionally rare move that hasn't been seen in 50 years. This coupled with the rise in Crude has the bid in place on the sweet stuff.
Support: 20.50: Old resistance and where the market fell to and bounced for a short time in early May.
20.20: 6/11-6/15 inflection level, 6/22-6/25 support.
20.05: 21-day moving average
19.80: Late May support, early June inflection, mid-June support levels and rising trend line that extends back to the 04June low.
18.86: 04June low
17.00: Target for the break below a large descending triangle and horizontal trend line (21.00) that dates back to January.
Resistance: 2100: psychological level and near last weeks highs.
21.95: 50% retracement of the March to early June decline.
Our technicals are now headed higher with the bullish action as reported since Friday's Euro prop up news. To give you a sense of this rally's speed, on 6/26, it was threatening to fall into the Oversold column. Since that date, all indicators are headed North, and it is likely there are fair number of shorts that have been and may continue to cover.
Seasonal Snapshot: All three patterns are in a pronounced upward bias until the beginning of Aug.