Gold: 03July We shorted Gold on a low Volume run up to our noted falling trend line resistance. Tight stop at 1625-1630.
Support 1600: Psychological level and 21-day moving average (1600.2)
1588: 26June high.
1555.9: –2STD below the 21-day moving average
1540: Rising trend line from the 15May low (1529)
1525-1530: Horizontal trend line that extends back to the previous low (26Sep 1532.7).
1500: Psychological support
1478.3 to 1462.5: Cluster of lows between 02May & 27June.
1456.8: 38.2% retracement of the Oct 2008- Sep 2011 rally
Resistance: 1621: Falling trend line in place since the $90 drop on 29Feb.
1644: +2STD above 21-day moving average
1667.2: 200-day moving average
Comment: Our Trend indicators are back to positive, but the lack of Volume has us concerned. The market has rallied through the psychological 1600 level to our noted falling trend line resistance, but on very low Volume. If the market can sustain a move above the trend line, it may retake the previous failed attempt to make a higher recent high (1642.4 on 06June). It would also bring our giant descending triangle formation into play. The formation extends back to the Sep 2011 high (1923.7). The upper boundary currently comes in around 1705. The bounce off our noted support level at the 26Dec low (1523.9) forms our horizontal trend line noted above and the lower boundary of the triangle.
Seasonal Snapshot: The 15 & 30 yr patterns decline precipitously until 05July. The 5yr pattern consolidates until 06July.
Support (continuous): 3.5280: The 38.2% retracement of the April to May decline and also clusters around the upper end of a brief consolidation range in late May.
3.4775: 18June high
3.3680: 21-day moving average
3.2375: –2STD below the 21-day moving average has acted as a brake. Also rising trend line from the June 2010 low (2.7200) through the Oct 2011 lows (299.40)
on any weakness.
3.2380: 04June low
3.2325: 15Dec 2011 low
3.2040: 25Nov 2011 low
3.0915: 20Oct 2011 low
2.9940: 03Oct 2011 low
Resistance (continuous): 3.4995: +2STD above 21-day moving average
3.5680: 200-day moving average
Comment: After a drastic narrowing, our +-2STD Bollinger Bands are expanding and the market is riding the upper band, but on... low Volume. We remind readers that it has effectively capped any rallies. Additionally, at its current 76, the continuous contract is the most Overbought we have seen it since January: 82 on 26Jan; 93 on 19Jan.
Seasonal Snapshot: All three patterns rally until the beginning of August.
The information presented in this report is taken from sources we believe to be reliable and accurate. This information is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The opinions expressed are based on our best judgment at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. These opinions should not be construed as an inducement or advice to enter into any Futures or Options on Futures transaction except where explicitly stated. There is risk of substantial loss in trading futures and options. One's financial suitability should be considered carefully before placing any trades. Past performance is not indicative of future results.