An east-west divide continues to evolve during the first week of August with average to cooler than average conditions from along the west coast to the Divide, the desert SW and west Texas. The rest of the lower 48 should be warmer than average except for Maine and New Hampshire where temperatures will be near-average. The warmest anomalies can be expected along the east coast from NYC to the south and over the SE states.

This week should bring some gradual weakening of the large, hot ridge over the Midwest lowering temperatures in that area by about 10F on average from the beginning of the week to the end although temperatures will still remain elevated from the average. By the end of the week the ridge will be rebuilding over the west. Most of the US will remain above-average warmth-wise although monsoonal moisture streaming into the desert SW will keep temperatures suppressed there.

Strong storms are possible through the Great Lakes and NY Wednesday-Thursday as an impulse and strong jet stream descends into the area, cooling temperatures off a few degrees in its wake. There is a good chance of some widespread though generally light rain in the corn belt due to a cold front from the Great Lakes impulse dropping south into the area late in the week....amounts will be locally higher under thunderstorms, of course. Although the tropics are forecast to remain quiet all week, a strong tropical wave will bring very stormy conditions to south Florida for the next few days.

NG injections to be reported this Thursday will likely again be below the 5 year average.