One man's bean forecast---
Beans made their low June 1 and most recent high July 20. MIDWAY Gap was created July 3--July 5.
This past week the half cycle weekly low (8 weeks out) was established, as was a daily cycle low, on Wednesday, July 25.
1."Should" have a 3-5 week rally for this next leg up.
2. This current daily cycle 'should' crest approximately 21 (+/-2) days from last wed, so either side of Aug 15.
3. Merriman has a cycle turn date Aug 15
4. New Moon (CIT?) Aug 17
5. August beans expire Aug 14
6. Sept options expire Aug 24
All of the above IS very useful, especially the Aug 15 time area. But what about price?
First, lets look at Lead/Nearest contract:
1. Midway Gap: June low 1318 July 3 high 1578 for a 2.60 difference. July 5 low 1587 plus 2.60 suggests 1847
2. Equal Leg: June low 1245 to July 20 high 1478 for a 4.60 difference. July 25 low 1618 plus 4.60 suggests 20.78.
Secondly, lets look at Nov Bean contract:
3. Midway Gap: June low 12.45 to July 3 high 14.78 for a 2.33 difference. July 5 low 14.93 plus 2.33 suggests 17.26
4. Equal Leg: June low 12.45 to July 20 high 16.91 for a 4.46 difference. July 25 low 15.36 plus 4.46 suggests 19.82
Needless to say, very bullish projections. Most likely will need a GAP and GO tonight to achieve this forecast. (Note: IF a gap created, another measuring tool will be available!)
Sept options look like a way to take advantage, as I believe August will expire ON its HIGH, but 1-3 days before cycle high, so Sept 'might' make THE high.
Sept contract is very thin, but will gain volume. Nov beans and dec products have very large volume.
For the record, long dec meal 475 (bot thur and sweated!)
OTHER THOUGHTS VERY MUCH WELCOMED!!
Trade well!