The last full week of August will feature a significant reversion to the mean temperature-wise; indeed a reversal over the Mississippi Valley where temperatures are likely to be a little below normal. Otherwise near -average conditions will rule much of the lower 48; the warm hold-outs will include the great basin, AZ and west Texas. The pattern is supportive of tropical storms or hurricanes that approach the east coast and then re-curve safely to the east over the Atlantic.

This week will feature a series of upper troughs diving thru the upper Midwest then lifting back into eastern Canada. Seasonally cool conditions will predominate from the eastern Northern plains thru the upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes states. Warmer than average at first from NYC south along the eastern Seaboard, thru the Gulf Coast states and TX, and into the Desert SW and Rocky Mountain Sates and most of the Pacific Coast as a big ridge centered over AZ controls the weather. The NYC area will cool off a few degrees to near or slightly below normal after mid-week, although the rest of the eastern Seaboard will remain warm from Philly and south for the entire week. Showery and thundershowery over much of the east and the northern plains this week.

One model shows a weakening TS Hector moving up the Baja and into extreme SW California by the end of the week. This is a solution not too well supported by the other models ( they move it further NW where it dies over cooler waters) but remains a rare possibility. There is a tropical wave in the Caribbean this morning just E of the Windward Islands but its chances of development are low.

NG injections reported this Thursday, the 16th, should again be below the 5 year average however the following week's report on the 23rd may be closer to the 5 year numbers.