I think the chart Trades just posted on crude depicts the current state of affairs nicely. Oil is simply trapped in a range right now that is fundamentally pricing in and balancing the risks/events you've mentioned along with potentially more QE from the feds against the headwinds of increasing inventories and a weakening global economy, with China, Europe, and the U.S. weighing the heaviest on that front. The Libyan attack appears to be isolated to a few radicals and, so far, is not indicative of a looming crisis with the Libyan governement itself. As for the Israel/Iran thingy, that potential scenario has been lurking under the surface for quite some time now...of course any attack on Iran would mean all bets are off with regards to oil prices, but in the meantime the range is ruling prices here..that could be resolved as early as tomorrow with the fed desion on deck. Anyway, just my general thoughts..hope they help a bit...