The first week of fall brings above to well-above average temperatures west of a line drawn from NW Minnesota to south-central Arizona, except for coastal CA which will be near normal. Elsewhere, the SE, centered around northern Mississippi, will be cooler to much cooler than normal (with Florida the single exception at near-normal). Near average temperatures over the rest of the lower 48.

This week features a strong cold front moving early in the week through the north central states, setting up a big, cool upper trough that will only creep slowly through the Ohio valley and NE through the week. This trough will lift a disturbance to the NE from the Gulf of Mexico, bringing significant rain to the SE. A reenforcing cold front will drop through the northern plains into the trough mid-week. Strong ridge building will take place over the west.

There is a weak tropical disturbance near the Windward Islands this morning. It is not expected to develop into a tropical storm by most models but still bears watching.

NG injections should be a little below the 5 year average this week. Although the onset of fall has reduced A/C use in most major markets, increased use for electricity generation will offset some of the decline in cooling demand.