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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Re: Oct Crude/Copper/bill ward *PIC*

The broad stock market does follow it and continues to overall. The recent breakout over the 1 year downtrendline and more importantly clearing price resistance at 3.57 was a valid breakout. That is a trend change from down to up. No guarantee prices are going to the moon but is positive. Price has retraced a Fib 50% retracement of the Feb/11 to Oct/11 selloff and is very very overbought. Note the RSI 21 at the very overbought zone over 70 which is rare. Last time this occurred was last major price high in Jan/Feb/11. Not something you see very often and is a warning of a price high. Does not mean price can't go parabolic and continue to remain overbought but those times are very rare. Most of the time odds are you are looking at a price high nearby or already in. You can see a price high and a pullback and another price high shortly after with a lower RSI 21 like the Jan/Feb/11 example visible on this chart. But when seen it is still a shot over the bow warning of something more serious on the downside ahead. Plus something to keep in mind is China seems to be the key price mover with Copper now and their reports of activity and Copper storage is always questionable. So you have to question the reliability of Copper reports out of China now. So for that reason I don't get as excited about Copper as an indicator as I once did as I just don't believe everything that comes out of China. Before they were the key players in Copper prices the info on Copper was more believable. So you have to take what you hear with a grain of salt now unfortunately. Copper used to be the best indicator out there but is now manipulated.